European And US Indices Going In Opposite Directions
United States and Asia overnight tough sessions could bring down European indices on Monday. UK sales are likely to go up, due to low oil prices.
The opinions are divided between those who claim that the more and more likely rate hike in the summer caused the suffering of United States indices, and those who blame the weakness of the United States dollar in that period, for it. The debate has been going on whole last week. None of the two theories seem plausible, since the expectations of the previous meeting rate hike have been moved to the end of 2015. September is considered to be the earliest that the Federal Reserve will even consider rate hike. The weighted USD is mostly caused by this delay. The strong dollar has been accused of hurting the profits in the first quarter of 2015, making export more difficult.
Month and quarter rebalance is more likely to be responsible for the decoupling f USD and US indices. The approaching earning season is expected to be inadequate. As the expectations for the rate hike have been delayed, the dollar was left overly bought, and it wakened as a result.
Europe has stabilized in the last week, but we are still far from talks of and realistic sell-off. The European Central Bank initiated the QE program, mostly because the lack of offers in the bond market, and made European stocks more desirable. Weak Euro could prove to be beneficial to European earnings this season.
United Kingdom sales will be the focal point of UK economy, and they are being watched carefully. Sales could boost in the coming months, due to the plummeted oil prices, and its effect on the consumer. However, the raised prices, not so big of a raise, to be honest, could negatively affect the sales.