28 March 2006
Murray LevineThe Domino Theory
Recently, because some friends went to Vietnam as ordinary tourists, I was reminded of the “domino theory” that got us into the Vietnam war. The domino theory was proposed by President Dwight Eisenhower in 1954, although he wisely did not commit American forces to the fight between France seeking to maintain its colonial empire and the Vietnamese seeking independence. If we didn’t stop North Vietnamese communists who looked like the dominant force in the conflict after the defeat of the French, Southeast Asia would fall to communist dictatorships. In 1975, the last Americans left a Saigon rooftop by helicopter. Vietnam is now the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, but what of the other domino tiles in Southeast Asia - Cambodia, Thailand, Lao, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia? Did they fall to become communist dictatorships today?Southeast Asia countries continue to have internal political, ecological, economic, ethnic, racial, religious and ideological differences and strains. Some have had authoritarian leadership, but they are not communist dictatorships as domino theory predicted.
In the late 1970s, Cambodia was ruled by the murderous Khmer Rouge, an indigenous communist movement. After the end of the war with us, Vietnam invaded Cambodia and later withdrew. The horror of the “killing fields” was exposed in the 1980s. By 1993, the UN helped form an elected government of national reconciliation, with a constitution. Cambodia has many internal political strains and open conflicts, but it is far from the oppressive communist dictatorship it once was and it is adopting western economic practices..
The People’s Democratic Republic of Lao was ruled by the People’s Revolutionary Party. In 1991, still communist dominated, Lao adopted a constitution. It has an elected national assembly. One of the region’s poorest nations, Lao has engaged in economic reform to improve the health, education, welfare and the conditions of its working people. It is moving from acentrally planned economy to a market economy.
Thailand, a constitutional monarchy, has an elected national assembly; the Assembly chooses the prime minister. Thailand has always been independent; it has a market economy. Friendly to America, it is not communist dominated.
Indonesia, formerly a Dutch colony, has been an independent republic since 1949, with a constitution and universal suffrage. It has an elected legislature which selects its president and vice president. It has endured authoritarian leadership, and domestic political unrest and conflict. Indonesia has a market economy, but with many state owned enterprises. It is not communist dominated.
Malaysia has universal suffrage and elected and appointed legislative houses. The prime minister (the same one for many years) is designated by the legislature. Despite bouts of economic turmoil, Malaysia has a very high standard of living. State owned enterprises have been privatized. It is modernizing in order to compete with western nations.
Singapore became independent of Malaysia in 1965. It is now a parliamentary republic with a constitution and universal suffrage. Singapore government is dominated by a single, non-communist party. Singapore is very prosperous with a market economy supported by government policies. Singapore maintains friendly, cooperative relationships with the United States and its military.
The Vietnam domino theory was clearly wrong. Some claim our commitment in the Vietnam war “saved” Southeast Asia, but those countries developed non-communist governments and market economies as a result of internal social, historical and economic forces, without our military intervention. Even Communist Vietnam has moved toward economic, if not social liberalization. One thought I had was whether Southeast Asia would look any different today if we hadn’t fought the Vietnam war with a loss of 50,000 of our military, a loss of national unity, and a loss of untold Vietnamese lives. I also wonder about the Bush administration domino theory of democratization. The failure of the domino theory in Southeast Asia should at least make us skeptical that democratization in Iraq as a result of military intervention will result in a flowering of democracy in the Middle East.
Copyright 2006 by Buffalo Report, Inc.